When the US presidential election ended in November 2020, how many people thought that the same candidate would compete again in the presidential election four years later? Neither the ruling Democratic Party nor the opposition Republican Party have yet confirmed their presidential candidates for next year, but the possibility of a rematch between President Joe Biden (81) and former President Donald Trump (77) is increasing.

For President Biden, who declared a re-election challenge this April, his intra-party primary is only a formality. Former President Trump, who first cast a vote in November last year, also ranks first in the Republican Party’s unrivaled approval rating. If both of them become the final candidates, it will be the first time that two identical candidates face each other in two consecutive presidential elections.

Concerns are high that a rematch between the former and incumbent presidents will deepen the already serious divide in American society. Former President Trump instigated his supporters with various hateful remarks and harsh words and demonized his opponents. President Biden, who came to power saying he would overcome this, has not been able to show a significant difference so far.

In the midst of this, when former President Trump was prosecuted by the Manhattan District Prosecutors’ Office and the Federal Prosecutor’s Office in New York in March this year and on the 8th of this month, respectively, it became more difficult to predict the presidential election. Trump’s supporters are strongly united, but the anti-Trump propensity of middle-class and Democratic supporters is also rising.

● Both Trump and Biden have considerable reluctance
Both have clear strengths and weaknesses. President Biden can easily mobilize various tangible and intangible resources based on the advantage of being incumbent. However, the image of vested interest that he has never left the central political world in Washington for decades, including 8 years as vice president and 36 years as a senator, including the presidency, and various incidents of his troublemaker son Hunter are cited as weaknesses.

There are mixed evaluations of the endless health anomaly and a series of slips of the tongue. In a situation where the wind of ‘young leaders’ is blowing in major countries such as the UK, France, and Italy, it is pointed out whether we should wait until the re-election of the 80th president. However, there is no clear evidence that his health condition greatly hindered his job performance, and there are counterarguments that former President Trump is only four years younger.

Former President Trump was indicted by federal prosecutors on 37 charges, including leaking classified documents and obstruction of justice, and 34 charges, including document manipulation, by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office. This judicial risk is likely to follow him until next July, when the Republican presidential nominee is officially elected.

Even if he is convicted, he can run for the presidential election, but it is pointed out that a person with a high legal risk should not be elected as a candidate. The U.S. Constitution stipulates that only those who have natural citizenship at birth and who have lived in the U.S. for more than 14 years at the age of 35 can hold the office of president. In other words, there is no provision prohibiting anyone who is indicted or serving a prison term from running for president.

Neither had a clear lead in the polls. In a survey conducted on the 9th to 11th by Morning Consult, a polling company, the approval ratings for the two were the same at 42%. Both of them are stuck in the early 40% approval rating in the approval ratings of the two announced weekly for about half a year from November of last year to early this month, when former President Trump declared a re-election challenge.

Rejection of both is also high. In an NBC survey in April of this year, 70% and 60% of the respondents said that President Biden and former President Trump should not run for the presidential election next year, respectively. Only 5% of respondents said, “I wish both could run.”

After the indictment, Trump supporters are rallying. In a Morning Consult survey, 59% of Republican supporters said they “prefer former President Trump as their presidential candidate.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the biggest contender in the party primary, had only 19% of the approval rating.

However, analysis is raised that even if former President Trump’s judicial risk may be a good thing in the Republican primary, which is the’preliminary’, there is a lot of room for disadvantage in the next year’s presidential election, which is the’final’. Ahn Byung-jin, an American political expert and professor at the Institute for Future Civilization at Kyung Hee University, said, “The cases prosecuted by the federal prosecutors are serious crimes that can be sentenced to at least several decades in prison if convicted.” rated as different. If the judicial crisis continues, it is predicted that not only the shamans but also some right-wing voters will leave.

● ‘Results of economy and competitive race’ are influencing
Many experts cite the slowdown in the US economy due to the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) as the reason for President Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. In the second quarter of the same year (April to June), which was the beginning of Corona 19, the growth rate of the US gross domestic product ( GDP ) was -30%. It was the worst quarterly growth rate in U.S. history, a blow to then-president Trump.

The biggest topic of this presidential election is also expected to be the ‘economy’. There is a high demand for price stability as prices continue to rise due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 and the US-China conflict. Another polling company, YouGov, conducted a survey on the 27th and 31st of last month, and 18% of respondents picked ‘inflation’ as the top agenda for this presidential election. It beat medical welfare (12%), jobs (10%), and climate/environment (10%).

Given this, both are expected to emphasize their pledge to increase jobs in the United States, especially the revival of labor-intensive manufacturing. Former President Trump used the slogan ” Make America Great Again ” in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections . President Biden also emphasizes that he created 12 million jobs after taking office.

This is not irrelevant to the phenomenon that the biggest winners of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections are evaluated as the Northeastern ‘Rust Belt’ (a declining industrial zone), such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. In the past, the propensity to support the Democratic Party was strong, but in the recent presidential election, neither party has a clear advantage. Former President Trump won all three states during the 2016 presidential election. Initially, it was evaluated that the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton’s advantage was predicted, and that it contributed decisively to the defeat of the Democratic Party. In 2020, President Biden all pressed former President Trump.

In the US presidential election, which combines indirect and direct elections, voters in each state vote directly for one of the candidates from both parties. The winning candidate gets the electoral corps assigned to each of the 50 states. Through this, the candidate who occupies the majority of the total of 538 electoral votes wins.

Among the 50 states, the states with the most electoral votes are California (54), Texas (40), Florida (30), and New York (28). Among them, California and New York have strong support for the Democratic Party, and Texas is considered a stronghold of the Republican Party. In other words, it is a structure in which the person who wins Florida, where both parties are risking life and death, can create a platform for victory.

In the 2000 presidential election, then-Democratic candidate Al Gore was ahead of Republican candidate George W. Bush in the percentage of total U.S. votes, but was defeated in Florida and handed over the seat as the owner of the White House. Former President Trump won Florida in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. He has a Mar-a-Lago resort in his home, and trials on federal charges are also held in Miami Federal Court. Lee Jong-gon, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Ewha Womans University, said, “The political polarization in the US is so severe that some states say that the election results have already been decided.”

● Pay attention to the culture war agenda
The two are diametrically opposed to the history of abortion, guns, immigration, and racism, as well as “culture wars” agendas such as sexual orientation and gender identity education.

Former President Trump appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court during his presidency. As a result, 6 out of 9 Supreme Court justices who served life were filled with conservative judges. The dominant analysis is that this human composition is the background for the Supreme Court’s decision in June of last year to abolish abortion rights at the federal level for the first time in 49 years since 1973.

Former President Trump defended it as “a good decision for everyone” at the time. President Biden rebelled, saying, “A woman’s right to choose is a fundamental right.” In the United States, where the principle of separation of powers is strict, abortion has been shown to be a key agenda item in the conflict between the conservatives and the conservatives, to the extent that the head of the administration directly opposes the decision of the judiciary.

The two clashed last month when a Korean-American couple and their young children were killed in a mass shooting in Texas. At the time, former President Trump described himself as “the greatest gun supporter of all US presidents and a defender of the ‘Second Amendment’, which specifies the right to own guns.” President Biden confronted the Republican Party to cooperate with his gun control policy, saying, “How many more Americans must die?” The same is true of ‘Critical Race Theory ( CRT )’ education, which

says that racial discrimination in the United States stems from the social system itself메이저놀이터, not individual prejudice . President Biden is positive, saying, “We must acknowledge the mistakes of the history of racial discrimination in the United States.” Former President Trump calls it “brainwashing education of the left” and shouts, “Let’s drive the CRT out of the classroom.”

Former President Trump, who had a strong anti-immigration policy throughout his presidency, insists that “the United States is not a refugee camp” and that “the entry of illegal aliens into the United States is an ‘invasion’”. He said that the Biden administration unilaterally stopped the construction of the Mexican border barrier, which he promoted while in power, and said, “If I come back to power, I will build the barrier again.” President Biden is in the position that legal immigrants and illegal immigrants should be separated and screened.

● Contrasting personal history, “beauty first” is common
The personal histories of the two are also contrasting. President Biden, an Irish Catholic, was born in 1942 to a working family in Scranton, a coal mining town in Pennsylvania. He is a self-made older brother who, at just 30, won an election for the Senate from nearby Delaware. He later became a senator, vice president, and then president. He challenged three times for the Democratic presidential nomination, became the owner of the White House, and lived his entire life as an “insider” in Washington politics.

Former President Trump was an “outsider” who had never been involved in politics before taking office, but immediately became the owner of the White House in his first presidential campaign. He was born in New York City, New York, in 1946, the son of a wealthy German Protestant real estate developer. He earned a fortune by participating in the redevelopment of downtown Manhattan in New York and the development of the nearby casino city of Atlantic City in New Jersey.

From 2004 to 2015, he appeared on NBC ‘s survival competition program ‘The Apprentice’ and became a world celebrity. At that time, his regular comment to prospective entrepreneurs who were eliminated, “You are fired,” became an international buzzword. Analysts say that his proficiency in social media use even at a considerable age after taking power is also closely related to his tendency to enjoy public exposure throughout his life.

What the two have in common is the advocacy of ‘America First’. As a result, no matter which of the two wins the presidential election next year, the ‘Second Inflation Reduction Act’ ( IRA))’ will continue, and the prevailing prospect is that the US-China conflict will not be easily resolved. This means that there is a high possibility that the current situation in which Korean society as a whole will be concerned about the aftermath of the US-China conflict will continue. Lim Eun-jeong, an associate professor of international studies at Kongju National University, diagnosed, “If the Democratic Party and the Republican Party compete to adhere to the ‘China-bashing’ policy in the midst of the US-China conflict, ‘countries that are caught’ like Korea will inevitably suffer losses.”